Monthly Archives: September 2011
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Scandie weakness and corrections elsewhere
Most notable moves higher in EUR/scandies yesterday. Also USD/scandies have commited serious resistance violations – all worth following closely (re-checks lower likely before up)… EURUSD is correcting higher – over 1.3695 would target 1.3755\65…
MS FX Flows Chart Pack – September 12, 2011
Week of: Sept 3 – 9, 2011 USD Buying Demand: Our clients were net buyers of USD on the week, though net flow was not especially large. In all, conviction on USD has been weak, as our clients have flipped from net buyers to net sellers and vice versa for the past six weeks in […]
EUR Cracks
EURUSD surrenders key 1.3722/1.3655 support with risk to the 2011 low, 1.2859. Strategy: Try a short at 1.3825 for 1.3050; exit 1.4155. EURGBP surrender of 200-day MA and .8654/11 support cluster signals bigger top for .8460/55 next and risk to .8245 in September. EURJPY plunge through key basing support and the 105.43 secular low targets […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Market has no ear for positive eurozone news
EUR/USD (1.3520) The resignation of Juergen Stark from the ECB has gobbled up column inches in the weekend press, but it would be wrong to blame the news for the euro’s decline. By the time the news agencies ran the story, the euro had already registered two-thirds of he day’s losses.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 12 September 2011
EUR continues to slide – volatility risks slipping over into real economy: Concerns over progress on the Greek bailout and the sudden resignation of Juergen Stark from the ECB Governing Board has seen risk pummelled. The DJIA fell more than 300 points and the flight into safe haven assets kept USD and USTs well bid. […]
European FX Daily – EUR sell off continues
– AUD and KRW lead sell-off vs USD, Asian equities down 1.2%-3.3%. – US data this week likely point to slow growth but no support yet for QE3 – Italian and Spanish bond auction in focus – Credit Suisse conference call today: The Future of the Euro
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Plunge through critical 1.3772/1.3665 support area from the 2010-11 up trend aims at 1.3428 today with September risk growing for 1.2859 GBP/USD: Attempted basing in the 1.5912/05 area dismissed with spotlight today on key retrace/price support, 1.5785/81
Global Macro Strategy – Trade Ideas – Sell EUR/GBP
In an ad hoc comment sent to clients on 18 August, we said that we would look to sell EUR/GBP should support at 0.8645 be penetrated. This support has now gone intra-day, and we think the time is ripe for further GBP gains versus EUR. To repeat our thoughts: The chart below (Figure 1) looks […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Right evaluation, wrong conclusion
EUR/USD (1.3905) By changing the its evaluation of the risks for eurozone growth and inflation to the “downside” and “balanced”, respectively, the ECB’s Governing Council precisely matched market expectations.
FX Pulse: Funding in Euros
Global Currency Research Conditions for further EUR weakness have fallen into place. The German Constitutional Court has supported the control rights of the German Parliament regarding future EMU support payments and guarantees. The ECB has underlined the need for fiscal consolidation and for peripheral countries to restructure their economies, which will be deflationary.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – Activity indicators show diverging results in July (p2) CZ: Neutral – 2Q GDP (final) comes in at 0.1% qoq, 2.2% yoy (p2) HU: Positive – AKK sells HUF54bn HGBs at auctions vs. HUF45bn original offer, demand strong for the shorter papers (p2) RO: Positive – July industrial production increases 1.7% yoy […]
European FX Daily – Markets quiet ahead of weekend G7 summit
– NZD leads modest rally vs USD, Asian equities mixed – Bernanke kept to Jackson Hole speech – Obama announced a bigger than expected $447bn jobs stimulus plan – Greece to announce participation rate for the debt exchange – G7 finance ministers meet for two-day summit – Conference Calls: Crunch Time – Outlook for the […]