Monthly Archives: September 2011
CDS Closing levels and comment
IRELND 5Y 800/860 (-60) BGB 5Y 275/285 (-10) PGB 5Y 1100/1150 (-75) ITALY 5Y 460/470 (-40) Core comparators GGB 5Y 58/62 +100 (+1) DBR 5Y 83/86 (-1) SPGB 5Y 385/395 (-35) FRTR 5Y 177/182 (-14) NETHER 5Y 90/94 (-2) SovX 5Y S5 339/342 (-12) RAGB 5Y 140/145 (-8)
Daily Economic Briefing: September 13, 2011
Global data summary • With the global recovery still struggling to reach escape velocity, policymakers are being forced to delay the handoff to the private sector as the engine of growth. Fiscal policy has reached its limit; indeed, it has either become a sizable drag on activity (UK, EMU) or a source of concern with […]
Australia: New seasonally-adjusted methodology for measuring CPI to help RBA stay on target
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has adjusted both the trimmed mean and weighted median methodology used to measure underlying CPI inflation (the methodology for headline inflation is unchanged). Introduction of the new methodology follows the sixteenth series review of the consumer price index.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Weak AUD & GPB and Scandies are still vulnerable
EURUSD & EURJPY consolidate recent losses – once done ranging, fresh lows should be expected… GBPUSD seems headed for 1.5650… AUDUSD looks staged to clear support at 0.9927 not before long… EURSEK still looks posed to try 9.1990… USDSEK also seeks clearence above the mid-6.77s…
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Made in Italy – bought in China?
EUR/USD (1.3680) Against a backdrop of intense political debate over Greece, heightened tensions in the banking sector and continued European stock market declines, the euro struggled to find its feet yesterday. The selling, which ultimately dragged it below $1.35, was also accompanied by rising implied volatility.
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Temporary risk reprieve
Spike lows in a number of currency pairs yesterday, particularly euro-related, imply bargain hunting. However, with the exception EUR/AUD (where there was a Key Day), there is a lack of compelling evidence for a sustainable recovery. Consequently, we see the bounce as a relief rally that ultimately will set up more weakness, and we would […]
S&P on Australian banks
SYDNEY (Dow Jones) – Australia’s banking sector is vulnerable to the squeeze in global liquidity conditions and any negative swings in investor sentiment, Standard & Poor’s Ratings credit analyst for the country said Tuesday, illustrating the growing threat from Europe’s spiralling debt crisis.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Negative – July C/A posts CZK 12.8bn deficit (p2) HU: Negative – Government supports FX mortgage plan but does not force banks to provide HUF financing (p2) PL: Neutral – July C/A posts EUR 1.6bn deficit (p2) (p2) RO: Mixed – August CPI fell to 4.3%yoy, about 30bp below market consensus, Jan-July C/A […]
Sovereign Ratings Outlook: September 2011
Well Euro held in there well yesterday after a punishing 10 previous days. Plenty of chat and headlines around China and Italy support but as seen before the support for Spain did not amount to anything decent. Italy’s auction will be watched closely. Valentin Marinov (Strategy) notes that proposed EFSF issuance of EUR25bn to year-end […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Immediate bear pressures eased by intraday bounce, but whilst below 1.3938 mid-month threat lies through 1.3428 to 1.3305, with September risk still for 1.3050 GBP/USD: Attempted rebound from key retrace/price support, 1.5785/81, but only above 1.5992 eases bear risk. Else, late Q3 threat is lower to 1.5490, and maybe 1.5345/5296
Daily Economic Briefing: September 12, 2011
Global data summary Tensions continue to build in the EMU fiscal crisis. Investors are sensing a breaking point may be in the offing and, with little idea of what this will be or how it will play out, are moving quickly to the exit. In the event of a disorderly involuntary default, Greece would likely […]
Big numbers, small effect: Comments on Obama’s new job plan
Less than meets the eye Last week, President Obama went before a joint session of Congress to propose a series of measures (the American Jobs Act) designed to spur economic growth and job creation. The proposals amount to USD447bn in tax cuts and new spending (about 3% of current nominal GDP). That may sound like […]