Monthly Archives: September 2011
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – C/A balance in April reaches 2.3% of GDP (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin sells RON 0.18bn 3Y ROMGB: yield 7.49%, (p2) TK: Neutral – 8M11 central budget primary surplus comes in at TRY 8.6bn (p2)
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Good news follows bad
EUR/USD (1.3860) Given the brisk resuscitation of the European stock indices – no less than 12 percent in three days for the German blue chips – it is tempting to think that the preceding sell-off in equities and in the euro was overdone, that the market had again displayed its tendency to over-react.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Position squeeze is the name of the game. Contrary to our view the market failed to produce the looked for final wave lower in EURUSD as well in most equity markets (excl. Asia in general). We will probably see a bit more of the same today but many markets now approaching minor correction targets, hence […]
FX Focus: JPY – To intervene or not to intervene… what drives that decision?
We believe that several factors, such as valuation and momentum, have affected the Japanese government’s decision whether or not to intervene in the FX market. Our model suggests the probability of JPY-intervention this month is at its highest level since August 2010.
Dollar liquidity – comments from our strat guys : USD -ve
”So while this action should be bearish for the USD, the impact should not be as dramatic as was the case during similarly coordinated efforts during 2008 and early 2009, we believe.” From Bob Lynch in FX strategy, NY… The ECB announced that it will provide additional USD funding to the Euro area banking system […]
Technical Analysis: Weekly equity technicals – Missing that final low
Two new signals generated since last week. Indonesia has developed a bearish pattern and thus looks very vulnerable. USD index has posted a fresh buy signal.
HSBC: Macrobullets Thursday
TOP: Italy facing another test As Moody’s Rating Decision Looms as Italy’s 90-day period closes at the end of this week. {http://on.wsj.com/n420W6} The government reaffirmed its intention to fully implement its fiscal reform program, following a teleconference between Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News KZ: Mixed – Kazakhstan’s real GDP expanded 6.7% yoy in Jan-July vs. 7.1% in Jan-June (p2) RU: Mixed – CBR cuts repo rate buy 25bp and hikes deposit rate by 25bp in a move to reduce money market volatility (p1)
Global Technical Watch – Dollar over Asia (Sep 15)
We are focusing on Asian currencies today. The Asia Dollar Index closed below its 200-day average for the first time in over a year, and several currencies in the region risk further bearish, corrective price action against the USD. We highlight various support areas and trigger points at which this theme is likely to persist.
New Zealand: RBNZ September MPS – RBNZ keeps door open for hikes
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.50%, in line with the consensus forecast and market pricing. The Statement was more dovish than the June MPS, in line with our expectations (see New Zealand: RBNZ September MPS – Not that dovish, 14 September 2011). Governor Bollard noted […]
WSJ & Italy
PAUL MACKEL: Moody’s has Italy at Aa2 at the moment for l-t foreign currency. S&P at A+ and Fitch AA-. Moody’s is lagging the other agencies. So the question is if there was going to be a downgrade, would they just match S&P or Fitch or take the lead.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Corrections are running late with hourly wave patterns now pointing towards a completed move. Downside risk should thus be returning in EURUSD,AUDUSD,EURJPY, Equities etc.