Daily Archives: September 27, 2011
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – take profit on half of our RUB payer
News RO: Neg – MinFin rejects all bids at a RON400mn auction of 6M T-Bills (p2) RU: Negative – FinMin Kudrin resigns amid clash with Medvedev (p1) TK: Positive – September real sector confidence index records a strong 2.4% mom increase (p2)
EEMEA morning thoughts, 27 September 2011
Russia’s political reshuffling: Finance Minister Kudrin dismissed. The situation with Finance Minister Kudrin expressing intention to leave his position after the March 2012 presidential elections under a (future) PM Medvedev has developed quickly. Yesterday President Medvedev demanded that Mr Kudrin resigns or reconsiders his position.
HSBC FI – EFSF discussion continues, Italian
ECB comments on increasing size of EFSF A range of numbers have been mentioned on the newswires, with some suggesting an increase to EUR2-3tn but without details of what this involves it is difficult to forecast the impact. It is not clear how the EFSF would be leveraged and, furthermore, whether the figures reflect the […]
European FX Daily – Risk sentiment stabilised on more constructive news from Europe
– Asian FX and equities rally, AUD outperforming amongst G10 – Slovenia likely to ratify EFSF amendments – US Consumer confidence and Richmond Fed in focus
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Correctional themes dominate
It seems like the market is consolidating or at best correcting some recent risk-off trades, but it’s way too early to call for more lasting lows/highs in place… EURUSD over 1.3585 could call for levels as high as 1.3800… EURJPY over 103.80\95 would trigger more buy-stops and the correctinal advance in GBPUSD is still on […]
HSBC: Currencies: Currency Weekly: USD – the only port in this storm
Last week’s gloomy outlook for global growth has caused an exodus from risk assets such as equities and commodities. The main beneficiary of this repositioning has been the USD. This flight to the USD has taken place despite the fact that there has been no improvement in the structural position in the US.
German IFO fell to 107.5 in September from 108.7 a month ago
In September, the German IFO business index fell to 107.5 (a 15-month low) from 108.7 reported for August, with the decline having been less pronounced than was widely feared (market estimate: 106.5, BarCap: 108.5).
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Risk appetite stabilised somewhat amid speculation about policy measures to contain the eurozone crisis 2. ECB speakers continue to hint at policy accommodation in October, at least on the liquidity front, while the case for a rate cut has strengthened. 3. Eurozone M3 annual growth to remain weak in August.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 26 Sept 2011
Sentiment extremely mixed in Europe : Risk sentiment has been erratic with a risk-off mood in equity markets in Asia given way to a risk-on tone in Europe. While there was little concrete from the weekend G20/IMF meetings, equities are rallying (led by the financials) in response to a UK Telegraph report of a comprehensive […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Reluctant Friday bounce and “outside” pattern (lower?) today again breaks key 1.3428/10 support, with risk next to 1.3305 and late Q3/early October threat to 1.3050 AUD/USD: Aggressive reversal below critical .9933/27 aims at .9574/37 this week; October overshoot threat to .9218