Daily Archives: September 21, 2011
Americas FX Daily – Tighter ranges as the FOMC approaches
What happened overnight – EUR and equities rally modestly ahead of the FOMC – FOMC may deliver “twist”; a cut in IOR remains a possibility – BOE minutes likely to show more votes for new QE – Norges on hold
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Investors favour any Fed action over inaction
EUR/USD (1.3720) The euro traded lower early in yesterday’s European session as news began to circulate that the IMF had suggested the ECB should lower rates if risks to growth persist. The Fund approved of President Obama’s plan to stimulate job creation, but it also shaved a full percentage point from its Q3 GDP forecast […]
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Political markets Market conditions are currently dominated by rumors and political statements, which adds to the already prevailing uncertainty and leads to pretty erratic price movements, impossible to anticipate. Yesterday’s rumor about the SNB raising the floor for EUR/CHF again is another example, which pushed the market into its main resistance zone […]
FX Techtonics Daily – EUR/USD: ST pause before return to intermediate downside target of 1.3430/95
EUR/USD The likely break below the 1.3430/95 support zone should call for an extension of the downtrend initiated at 1.4945 in early May to the January low of 1.2860, with steps at 1.3245 and 1.2995.
Twist – good for the dollar?
If ‘twist’ flattens the curve and doesn’t send short yields down, it won’t hurt the dollar. The FOMC concludes this evening with three policy options (other than doing nothing, which isn’t Mr Bernanke’s way): Cut the rate on banks’ excess reserves, increase the sum of bonds held on the Fed’s balance sheet, or extend the […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – Hungary, Russia, Turkey
News HR: Positive – Central bank raises mandatory reserve requirement from 13% to 14%. (p2) HU: Mixed – NBH MPC keeps rates unchanged / sees about 20% participation rate in FX mortgage repayment scheme / says ready provide FX from reserves (p1) TK: Mixed – CBT MPC leaves rate unchanged / sells USD350mn at FX […]
Asia Wrap, Orderbook & Flow, FOMC, USD/Asia
1) Overnight Asia Wrap A quiet start to the day in Asia with the market hanging on the some aggressive moves by the FOMC tonight and expectation that Greece will receive its next tranche of aid amid progress on Greek talks. EURUSD opened at 1.3701 falling briefly to 1.3679 before moving higher to 1.3724. Cable […]
HSBC Macrobullets
TOP House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and other GOP leaders, in a letter Monday to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, urged Fed officials to “resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy.” Greece reports “satisfactory progress” in talks with troika; Talks to continue over weekend in Washington, D.C.; […]
EUR/USD forecast change: The peripheral crisis is likely to deepen
EUR/USD forecast change: The peripheral crisis is likely to deepen The problems in the euro area have deteriorated significantly and are likely to worsen further before stabilising. Heightened risk, coupled with more dovish language coming from the ECB and the SNB floor, has made a lower EUR/USD likely in the short run. We are therefore […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Conolidation/correction theme
Not much is cooking at the moment… EURUSD is still in a correctional mood and so is cable… USDCHF is the exception while it shows renewed upside impulse – possibly for extension towards 0.94\0.96 later… EURSEK & EURNOK seeks deeper correctional lows, but in this, NOKSEK could extend losses into the mid/low-1.16s before up…
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 21 September 2011
USD softer, EUR stable, CHF hit by SNB re-peg speculation. More positive signals out of the latest troika/Greece phone conference, an absence of any bad-news scare stories and some sense of optimism that the FOMC would deliver enough following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today to add a layer of support under risk markets, […]