Daily Archives: September 19, 2011
European FX Daily – Risk appetite starts busy week on the backfoot
– AUD and SGD lead selloff vs USD, Asian equities down 0.3-2.0% – FOMC likely to embark on operation twist – Euro zone PMI likely to print sub-50, leaving the euro vulnerable
ECB poised to act to reassure markets
Eurozone bank sector tensions are being watched closely by the European Central Bank, which has a range of policy weapons it could deploy swiftly to reassure nervous financial markets.
New week, same story as policy-makers leave markets without leadership
Europe’s Finance Ministers appear to have achieved no more than the G7 leaders did a week earlier. E-bonds will continue to be pushed by some, wanted by others, resited by Germany. Suggestions to allow leveraging the EFSF to give it ore power have also been rebuffed.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Faltering back from 1.3900/38 resistance to damage small basing effort. Risk back through 1.3497 low to key 1.3428/10 area early this week GBP/USD: New correction low aiming at key retracement support at 1.5490 into month-end, with overshoot risk to 1.5345/5296
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Reversing the reversals….so post weekend and risk off is back on the agenda. Stronger dollar, weaker euro and wobbly equities will be the main theme. EURUSD gapping (a rather rare occasion) down from its bear flag supports our view of a soon 1.31/33 visit. ECB EUR index looks set to soon test 100.
Key Currency Views: September 2011
Currency themes Theme #1. “Twist and Shout”. The Fed is expected to announce operation twist on Sept 21, likely followed before Thanksgiving by a loud “shout” (communicating their commitment to ultra-low rates beyond 2013). QE3 will be on the table if, as we expect, there is no inflection in the US data by Q1 of […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 19 September 2011
Mildly risk-positive Friday, but NZD, CAD and AUD lead the way, not EUR The dip in EURUSD in Friday’s Asia session, from 1.39+ on Thursday to sub-1.38 triggered our Long EURUSD trade recommendation, the pair subsequently oscillating quite narrowly around that level though the remainder of Friday.
Greece news headlines
********** Greece ********** Greece’s Prime Minister Cancels US Trip, Says Second Rescue Package Is At Stake. Papandreou, who had left for London en route to New York, then returned to Greece on Saturday night. Venizelos Says Greece Needs to Show Determination to Partners. SAYS PRIMARY SURPLUS WILL SHIELD COUNTRY, MUST PRODUCE PRIMARY SURPLUS AS SOON […]