Daily Archives: September 16, 2011
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – C/A balance in April reaches 2.3% of GDP (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin sells RON 0.18bn 3Y ROMGB: yield 7.49%, (p2) TK: Neutral – 8M11 central budget primary surplus comes in at TRY 8.6bn (p2)
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Good news follows bad
EUR/USD (1.3860) Given the brisk resuscitation of the European stock indices – no less than 12 percent in three days for the German blue chips – it is tempting to think that the preceding sell-off in equities and in the euro was overdone, that the market had again displayed its tendency to over-react.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Position squeeze is the name of the game. Contrary to our view the market failed to produce the looked for final wave lower in EURUSD as well in most equity markets (excl. Asia in general). We will probably see a bit more of the same today but many markets now approaching minor correction targets, hence […]
FX Focus: JPY – To intervene or not to intervene… what drives that decision?
We believe that several factors, such as valuation and momentum, have affected the Japanese government’s decision whether or not to intervene in the FX market. Our model suggests the probability of JPY-intervention this month is at its highest level since August 2010.
Dollar liquidity – comments from our strat guys : USD -ve
”So while this action should be bearish for the USD, the impact should not be as dramatic as was the case during similarly coordinated efforts during 2008 and early 2009, we believe.” From Bob Lynch in FX strategy, NY… The ECB announced that it will provide additional USD funding to the Euro area banking system […]