Daily Archives: September 8, 2011
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro market’s creeping dovishness
EUR/USD (1.4060) Jean-Claude Trichet’s admission almost a fortnight ago that the risks to medium-term price stability were “under study” at the ECB was the opening shot to a still blossoming market discussion about the future path of eurozone interest rates. The ECB’s study could, of course, yield any number of different conclusions.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: GBP/USD: Lacklustre rebound activity leaves risk through 1.5921/05 support today to key retrace support/Q3 low, 1.5785/81 into mid-month (we look to hold here initially) EUR/USD: Flagged “inside” Wednesday bounce leaves “outside” Tuesday plunge through 200-day MA weighing for a move through the 1.3973 recent trough to the 1.3837/1.3772 support area
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Negative – MinFin places CZK 6.3bn in CZGB 5.7/24: yield 3.193%, bid/cover 1.1 (p2) HU: Positive – July IP accelerates to 2.7% yoy (p2) PL: Neutral – MPC keeps policy rate unchanged at 4.50% (p2)
Fred Neumann short piece “Asia’s buffer” + FX forecasts
Fred continues to argue that the risk for Asia is a mere cyclical dip, not a financial crisis and Fred’s “chart of the week” shows that savings still have a healthy buffer over investment. HSBCs latest GDP, CPI and FX forecasts for the region are on p.4 (Worth a glance).
CNY WATCHERS
Couple of interesting notes on China overnight… USD/ASIA is a fair bit higher after poor AUD jobs data hurt risk, USDCNY unch tho The 1st story below getting a lot of attention..
Fed Prepares to Act
Federal Reserve officials are considering three unconventional steps to revive the economic recovery and seem increasingly inclined to take at least one as they prepare to meet this month.
AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT FELL 9,700 IN AUGUST
AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT FELL 9,700 IN AUG. employment rate 5.1 to 5.3 and full time
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Markets consolidate ahead of today’s events
Markets consolidates/corrects on the dawn of ECB/BOE and speeches from both Bernanke & Obama… Nothing we see are real trend-benders and continuation of trends is likely on the other side of these events…
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 08 September 2011
Resumption of Wednesday’s risk rally could provide support for EURUSD despite EUR risks The world looked like a much better place on Wednesday as risk rallied keeping high beta currencies like SEK, AUD, and NZD well in demand. AUD could receive further support this morning from an improvement in the employment numbers especially after the […]
UK GDP
UK NIESR estimate UK economy grew 0.2% 3mth up to Aug. (vs 0.6 in July) They say BoE will expand bond program if weakness persists (which it is in their mind) These guys been pretty good at predicting GDP numbers.
SELL PLN? WE FEEL THAT’S THE WAY FWD
The recent turmoil in the financial markets has confirmed EMEA FX remains the weakest link in the EM space. In CEE, we see that the Polish zloty is one of the most sensitive currencies to global market headwinds. Valuation metrics suggests that the PLN is too strong and the structure of the balance of payments […]