Daily Archives: September 5, 2011
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Payroll disappointment mitigated
EUR/USD (1.4160) Zero non-farm jobs created in the US in the month of August is a universally sobering statistic. Despite this, it seemed to take the FX markets an awfully long time to digest its implications. Fully one hour after the publication of the figure on Friday, the euro had still not exited its pre-release […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Calm before a storm?
Last week ended badly for risk. As both equities and yields fall it is clear that global growth expectations continue to be pared back. However, given the Labor Day holiday in the US today the risk is for a ranging respite in FX markets with the likes of GBP/USD holding between 1.6110 and 1.6255.
Some reading for you on Labour Day
FT; The worst of the euro crisis is yet to come http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4cd8efda-d4cc-11e0-a7ac-00144feab49a.html#axzz1X0qxVdO4 ..FT: Greece defends progress on reform ….Greece’s finance minister has staunchly defended his handling of the country’s relations with international lenders, accusing his critics of promoting “a mood of uncertainty and scaremongering” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/35672b54-d6f3-11e0-bc73-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1X0qxVdO4
Societe Generale FX Daily
The US has a day off work – though a lack of employment is in fact, the biggest problem facing the world’s dominant economy. The EUR/USD 1.42 barrier was taken out early in the Asian session. This DNT structure had helped to keep EUR/USD in a range even as ECB rate cuts were being priced […]
Emerging Markets Economics Daily
Latin America Brazil: We forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012 Chile: The minutes from the 18 August monetary policy meeting showed a diversity of opinions among board members regarding the future path of the monetary policy rate Colombia: CPI data for August will be published today; we expect the data […]
European FX Daily – USD stronger, equities down going into a key week for policy
– Antipodeans and Nordics lead sell off vs USD, Asian equities down 0.5-3% – German factory orders and ECB bond purchases in focus today – Global central banks to turn more cautious and neutral, keeping rates on hold
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Q3 trend reversal enhanced targeting 1.4055 this week with 1.4015/11 key to defend to avoid a more negative topping threat GBP/USD: Eyeing the critical 200-day moving average and key support zone at 1.6124/01. Growing risk of surrender for a more a negative tone to target 1.5781
Macrobullets – Monday 5th September
TOP Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right bloc suffered another stinging defeat on Sunday in a regional election in Germany’s poorest state, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with both her conservatives and their Free Democrat allies losing support {http://reut.rs/oqyYyt} HSBC China services PMI hit historical low of 50.6 in Aug {http://bloom.bg/rnOzRs}
S&P Says Joint Euro Bond Would Get Rating of ‘Weakest Link’
It is going to be a tough week for the EUR. Trichet is expected to be softer in his tone and the EUR will stay under pressure into the ECB. If he is not dovish, EUR will be still under downward pressure, as the market will increasingly discuss the erosion of ECB credibility.
SNB Should Set Rate Target, Economiesuisse Tells SonntagsZeitung
The latest buzz coming out from the Sunday newspapers in Switzerland is that the main business lobby group is pushing the SNB to adopt an initial EUR-CHF target range of 1.10 to 1.15. Then the exchange rate target should be brought near 1.20.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
With most markets now having confirmed completed corrections focus is back on safe havens. Bear flags/triangles all over the place in equities, commodities, emerging markets etc. EURUSD is fast approaching the 1.4100-area a key junction for medium term development, EURJPY has broken lower and should continue in the same direction, AUDUSD gapped lower today responding […]
A bad day for Angela
Post-payroll press conclusion: awful. Actually, with everyone revising forecasts lower the data weren’t an earth-shattering surprise. But still, an awful summer of economic data around the world ended on a bad note. Now the real business starts – Labor Day and back to school spending, with depleted real incomes and rock-bottom consumer confidence. And decreasing […]