Daily Archives: September 2, 2011
European FX Daily – Focus on payrolls
– FX traded sideways, Asian equities down 0.2-1.5% – US non-farm payrolls likely to surprise lower What to watch for today USD: Payroll to disappoint? Our economists expect today’s non-farm payrolls report to continue the recent run of “bad-but-not-necessarily-recessionary” data. They forecast below consensus prints of +5K for the headline payrolls number and +40K for […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Break below the medium-term upward trendline keeps the bias lower within the broader range, with risk down to 1.4109/04 and then 1.4055. GBP/USD: Reverts back to the critical 200-day moving average and key support zone at 1.6110/01. A break through here would confirm a bearish tone, with risk lower to 1.5781.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 02 September 2011
– All eyes on US employment report; an upside surprise could result in a risk-off reaction Better than expected data out of the US left markets trading with a risk off tone, although commodity currencies continue to trade well. Consensus was looking for ISM manufacturing to fall into contraction territory, but it managed to hold […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Ranging signs at the start of the month
The price action of the past 24 hours suggests further range trading should be expected in Sep. Euro support gave way yesterday pointing to a return to the lower half of the range of the last month and the USD Index escaped from its recent contracting pattern back into the middle of its range.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The psychology of zero non-farm payrolls
EUR/USD (1.4260) The market consensus for today’s US non-farm payroll numbers appear to have tumbled over the course of this week. On Monday, estimates were around 100,000. In the meantime, thanks to a few last-minute analyst downgrades, the consensus may not be much better than 30,000.
FX Strategist – EM FX Scorecard, August 2011
– The latest run of our emerging market currency model, the Scorecard, suggests being long the BRL, PLN and IDR and being short the PHP, TWD and HUF in September 2011 (Exhibit 1). This is largely in line with our fundamentals-based currency views where we are bullish the BRL, IDR and PLN and bearish the […]