Monthly Archives: September 2011
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 30 September 2011
Markets remain volatile but directionless; NZD hit by downgrades: Risk appetite continues to ebb and flow with headlines of progress and setbacks on Europe. US equities recovered from an early slide to close on a positive note, but futures have turned lower again since; the moves are mirrored by FX markets, which continue to see […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CEE: Neutral – Economic sentiment indicator provides a mixed signal but slowdown is becoming more evident HU: Negative – 12M t-bill auction is seriously undersubscribed, bid/cover ratio at 0.75 is the worst ratio ever (p2) PD: Negative – 2Q current account deficit EUR1bn wider than consensus due to revision in trade and service deficits […]
Greece: Troika reported to conclude assessment by Monday; government to hold extraordinary meeting
Local media report that the Troika resumed monitoring Greek public finances on Wednesday and is supposed to release its assessment by Monday, while the government will have to approve labour market reforms, the 2012 budget draft and the new medium-term fiscal plan.
EM bond fund flows: biggest weekly outflow on record
Data published this morning shows that EM bond funds saw their biggest weekly outflow on record (in absolute terms) at USD3.2bn. As we have highlighted in our fund flow report last week the serious underperformance of JPM-GBI vs. the UST will likely lead to outflows from EM bond funds. Data published this morning confirmed our […]
Risk aversion has ruled in Q3
Today will mostly be about wrapping up Q3. Random-seeming month-end moves are guaranteed! If I just look at Q3 market moves, the picture is that we’re not having a ‘euro crisis ‘ (it’s actually one of the stronger global currencies in Q3). Rather, the pervading theme has been broad risk aversion and fear of economic […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Further erratic price action reinforces near term defensive digestion theme. Whilst 1.3810 caps into Q3-end, the early October bias is still down to 1.3050 GBP/USD: Constructive “outside” Thursday leaves risk up closer to 1.5748/50 barriers into next week, which we still look to cap and for renewed bearish pressures from here
Japan increases its currency ‘war chest’
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said today that the government will lift the limit of the Financing Bill (FB) issuance for JPY selling intervention to JPY165trn yen (USD2.2trn) from the current JPY150trn in the third supplementary budget, which is likely to be formed in October.
CNY – Fix lower; CNH higher; NDF’s higher; Vols exploding
So another much lower fix at 6.3549 .. but spot USD/CNY onshore immediately trades higher to top end of the band, at 6.3867 – and sits there all mng The lower fixes, higher spot been going on all week but today most extreme case: some of it still related to arb players: those who can […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Basically more of the same as yesterday i.e. more evidence of ending correction accross the asset classes. EURUSD now three topside spikes but with a lower one yesterday showing sellers entered earlier, so building downside pressure we think.
Overnight Asia Wrap, Orderbook & Flow, $Asia and Levels
1) Overnight Asia Wrap We opened with risk bouncing and the USD well off its NY highs. Asia’s initial move was to extend this USD dip which was further exacerbated by decent AUD demand at the Tokyo fix. The notable exception to this USD move was the NZD which was lagging after being downgraded by […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. EFSF approvals fail to provide a lasting boost to sentiment as peripheral worries and growth concerns remain elevated After Germany yesterday, Austria is expected to approve the EFSF 2.0 today 2. Eurozone HICP inflation is likely to surprise to the upside by rising to 2.7% YoY
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (Sep 30)
The weekend and month-end approach, though from a technical perspective (and in general), the longer the horizon, the more reliable the signals. As such, we have focused on quarterly candles.