Monthly Archives: August 2011
ECB Statement
7 August 2011 – Statement by the President of the ECB 1. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) welcomes the announcements made by the governments of Italy and Spain concerning new measures and reforms in the areas of fiscal and structural policies. The Governing Council considers a decisive and swift implementation by […]
FX wrap from HK
The weekend S&P downgrade of the US saw FX markets open with the USD weaker across the board from Friday’s closing levels. EURUSD opened around 80pts higher, with EURCHF and USDCHF off almost 2 figures and USDJPY off around 130pts. The JPY and CHF pairs opened near their lows and never really looked in danger […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: AA+ is a new ballpark…
It’s all about how the S&P downgrade of U.S. debt will be priced in… EURUSD is the pair with two unwanted currencies and thus the outcome is more clouded than ever. Watch 1.4285\1.4454 for clues… S&P500 has levels below yet to be tested (1160/1130)…
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (Aug 8)
Amidst market turbulence, one of the measures of whether fear is extreme is the VIX index (reflecting protection purchasing in US equities in times of uncertainty). However, it is not just the absolute value of the VIX index (which is at levels of the correction last summer), it is also the pace of the rise […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – August 8
News CZ: Neutral – CNB keeps monetary policy unchanged, indicates a delay in the first hike by a quarter / Negative – June retail sales including the auto segment dropped 3.5% yoy (p2) KZ: Positive – Major government owned oil company completed the syndication of a USD1bn term loan facility (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin […]
US EMPLOYMENT IMPROVES???
In many ways the July employment was a mirror image of the June report, with modest upside surprises in all of the main components. Nonfarm payrolls rose 117k (consensus +85k), private payrolls rose 154k (consensus +113k), and the unemployment rate fell to 9.1% (consensus 9.2%). However, the lower unemployment rate reflected yet another decline in […]
Australia: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy: Aug 2011
Today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP). The release provides an update on the RBA’s thoughts on the Australian economic outlook, including forecasts out to Dec-2013. The previous statement was released on 5 May.
NFP
ROBERT LYNCH : US nonfarm payrolls rise 117K in July, better than the median forecast and following upward revisions 56K in upward revisions to the previous two months.
Russia: CPI dropped to 9%y/y in July – below consensus
In July, CPI significantly slowed to 9%y/y. The slowdown was expected, but its size delivered some surprise: bloomberg’s consensus expected 0.1%m/m, or 9.2%y/y – the Economy Ministry anticipated the range 0.2-0.3%m/m.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ECB was unable to soothe the market
EUR/USD (1.4095) When asked in the post-meeting press conference why the ECB wasn’t actively buying eurozone bonds, President Trichet responded, “You will see what we do”, adding that he wouldn’t be surprised to see something in the market before the end of the teleconference.
HSBC MacroBullets – 05/08/11
TOP Japanese FinMin Noda today repeated that he was closely watching yen moves, signalling Tokyo’s readiness to continue with its yen-selling intervention that media said reached a record 4 trillion yen ($50.6 billion). However Noda also said he wanted to spend more time determining the effect of Tokyo’s action, a comment which briefly pushed up […]