Monthly Archives: August 2011
Market Mover: 11 August 2011
The US downgrade has been a trigger for a sharp rise in risk aversion, pushing yields to record lows. The relief in markets following the FOMC statement that rates were to be kept exceptionally low until at least mid-2013 failed to last. Concerns over a deep economic slowdown have intensified – the global economy is […]
What is going on in the CHF?
So EURCHF has been as low as 1.0257 and as high as 1.0921 today (A range of 6.5%) and we currently sit near those highs. Lets not forget that up until today the CHF had appreciated 22% vs the USD since the beginning of the year (the most of any G10 currency) and 35% since […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Austerity vs. growth
EUR/USD (1.4225) The effects of the Fed’s 2-year pre-commitment to exceptionally low federal funds rates began to wane yesterday after only one day of relief. Traders spoke of banks’ exposure to Greek debt as the reason for another equity market sell-off.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – Govt auctions CZK 7.3bn 6Y CZGB (p2) RO: Positive – July inflation falls to 4.85% (p2) Today’s Events CZ: June C/A; ES: 2Q GDP (Preliminary), June C/A; HU: July CPI; LV: June C/A; PL: June C/A; SRB: Policy rate announcement, RSD 4bn 3M tbill auction; RU: 2Q GDP (Preliminary); TK: June […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Weaker Scandies… And sharp drop in USD/CNY
EURUSD is “The House of Frustration” and still no strong views there… GBPUSD might lead the way though with abearish print added yesterday – targeting 1.5920… Another frontrunner may be EURJPY which yesterday added its lowes session close since mid-Jan this year…
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors – August 11
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Another recovery failure ahead of 1.4454 reinforces defensive range theme, with end of week risk through 1.4055/15 support levels to the 200-day MA, 1.3945 USD/JPY: Poised at the historical 76.30/25 lows, now with likely break below aiming at 74.80 initially with risk to 72.55
Overnight Wrap, OB & Flow, USDAsia (note CNY) and Key Open Levels
1) Overnight Wrap Another wild session, liquidity non existent at times as we gap around in remarkable fashion. New York had closed on its lows after the bloodbath in equity markets overnight. Asia immediately pushes risk higher as stale shorts are squeezed, further propelled by a very low CNY fixing.
Asia Flash: China – September rebound in economic activity intact
We maintain our core view that economic activity in China will rebound latest by September and stabilize in August. This is a very out of consensus view in light of recent market and global macro data turbulence. This view is based on our proprietary model of leading indicators for China. For details, please refer to […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Riskier assets look a little bit better today
EURUSD is still in range but may test its upper end… USDJPY is challenging BOJ – is there a line in the sand at 76.25? EURCHF is UP 300pips form its overnight low of 1.0075(!!!) – where next??? EURSEK filled an upside objective yesterday and is thought to range inside 9.19\29… EURNOK may still try […]
European FX Daily – Fed signals low rates through mid-2013
– G10 currencies modestly weaker vs USD, Asian equities up 1%-2.8% – Fed signals exceptionally low rates through mid-2013 – BoE inflation report likely to signal more dovish bias
Westpac Australia Asian Daily
Market themes & issues Today saw one of the most incredible swings in market sentiment that we have seen in 3 plus years. Following on from significant losses in US equity markets, the AUD was battered by wave after wave of selling first up. It climaxed with a break back through parity for the first […]
OVN FX WRAP
Day with Japanese targeting AUDJPY stops, and the risk selling continued all day. AUD the massive mover overnight falling from 1.0180 to our current low of .9927. Asian Equities trashed with KOSPI down 9.3% at one point (down 8% currently) and US equity futures down 2.5 to 3%. China CPI at 6.5% (6.4 expected) didn’t […]