Monthly Archives: August 2011
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: US consumers sense another recession
EUR/USD (1.4290) World Bank chief Robert Zoellick warned on Saturday that the world is entering a new economic ‘danger zone’, with confidence in leadership slipping. Mr Zoellick said we are in the early moments of a new and different economic storm, with the eurozone’s sovereign debt problems being more troubling than the medium and long-term […]
E-bonds back on agenda, Italian austerity
Discussing the longer-term solution to the Eurozone crisis Both short- and long-term solutions to the crisis will provide focal points for the market over the next 24 hours. Today the ECB will release last week’s settled purchases (15:30CET) of bonds via the SMP (Securities Market Program), which began 8 August, with expectations centred on EUR15bn […]
Back to 1978 for the CHF?
There was more talk of the potential CHF peg over the weekend with local press (SonnatsZeitung) reporting ‘intense’ talks and a possible announcement later this week. The newspaper mentioned 17 August as the day where an ‘appropriate plan’ could be announced. Over the past week we have outlined the various flaws of introducing a peg […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Eyes on EUR/CHF, EUR/NOK & higher bond yields
EURUSD is still in range, offering only weak directional clues… EURCHF on the other hand is sharply higher with 1.1350\1.1500 target area fully in sight… AUDUSD could extend the correction towards the +1.05-area…
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 15 August 2011
CHF and JPY to stay in the spotlight, both at risk of renewed strength. EURUSD more prone to fall than rally barring sharp improvement in global risk appetite. We favour short EURJPY and short EURAUD here.
Russia: Government approves 2012-14 borrowing plan
Yesterday, the Russian government approved the key budget parameters and its borrowing plan for the next three years. The average Urals oil price in 2012-2014 is expected at USD93 per bbl, USD95 and USD97, respectively, with the budget deficit reaching 2.7% of GDP in 2012 and 2013, and 2.3% in 2014. This corresponds to an […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Short-sale ban can’t change what is done
EUR/USD (1.4195) Eurozone members France, Belgium, Italy, and Spain have imposed a 15-day ban on the short-sale of financial stocks, effective this morning. The ‘French resistance’ was tested, according to that country’s chief securities regulator, and ‘this is our response’. However other Union members were not persuaded to go along, and we think for good […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – August 12
News CZ: Positive – June C/A posts a CZK 9.3bn deficit, 86% financed with FDI (p2) HU: Positive – July CPI slows down to 3.1% yoy (-0.3% mom) (p2) PL: Negative – June C/A deficit comes in higher than market expectations at EUR 1,596mn (p2)
FX Techtonics Daily – EUR/USD: ST risk to the downside, but limited potential
EUR/USD We expect the mid-July low of 1.3835, or even the 1.4015/55 support zone, to contain any down-move until the EUR/USD breaks above the tentative declining resistance line, which comes at 1.4455 today, and returns to the 1.4520/35 region.
FX Tech Trade Recommendation: Sell EUR/USD for a minimum decline to1.3350
Market seen at high risk of accelerating lower while the USD has improved its prospects for a broader recovery across board Central Scenario: The continuous failure to break above Ichimoku-resistance, the row of lower tops and the clearly established bear-trend in risk markets provide a high probability of accelerating lower
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Big EUR/CHF U-turn catches the eye
The notable EURCHF U-turn is volume laden and could feed into a +1.10 test… EURUSD is all revved up but has nowhere to go… There is some momentum in the AUDUSD correction, but the pair must not fall back below 1.0110 to hold pace… EURSEK likely trades in a 9.1995\9.3310 range and EURNOK needs to […]
HK FX Wrap, Orderbook & Flows, USD/Asia run and Key Levels
1) Overnight Wrap A quieter session overnight with little news of note and most of the majors stuck in 50 pts range. China Yuan fixed at historical high again, but there wasn’t any impact to risk pairs given S&P trading below par most of the time. The worst has been down 1% for the futures, […]