Monthly Archives: August 2011
UBS – Morning Adviser Europe – All Eyes On The Swiss
After yesterday’s rather uninspiring performance by the heads of government of France and Germany, investor attention will turn to the Swiss government, along with the SNB, to see whether measures will be announced to counter franc appreciation. Although no specific times or measures have been announced, press reports suggest an exchange rate floor will be […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – 2Q GDP growth slows to 2.4% yoy / Dovish – CNB Vice-Governor Hampl said that he found no reason to tighten monetary policy at the moment (p2) HU: Negative – Economy stagnates in 2Q qoq (p2) RO: Negative – 2Q GDP comes in at 1.4%% yoy / Negative – MinFin sells […]
CHF not a lot in the press release..SNB ..liq only
Swiss National Bank intensifies measures against strong Swiss franc The measures taken thus far by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) against the strength of the Swiss franc are having an impact. Nevertheless, the Swiss franc remains massively overvalued.
UK Employment / BoE minutes preview
Tomorrow AM the UK releases the minutes of this month’s MPC meeting as well as this month’s employment data see our econ group’s preview below UK BoE minutes (3-4 Aug meeting) 09:30 BST / 04:30 EST The projections in August’s Inflation Report struck a distinctly dovish tone, with inflation on a two-year horizon seen as […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Keep a downside watch on EuroStoxx50
Swissy pursuing overhead resistance and downside risks to stocks in general and in EuroStoxx 50 in particular is the main focus today… EURUSD below 1.4350 would strongly hint of another upside failure… EuroStoxx50 under 2268 would start to look ugly… EURCHF is sniffing resistance in the 55day EMA.
Preview: MPC minutes unlikely to have a large impact on GBP
The minutes from the August meeting are released today at 9:30. What is likely to matter for GBP is the extent to which the policy rate vote and content of the discussion reflects the more dovish Inflation Report. We expect no new information to be forthcoming in the minutes, with no change in the policy […]
Swiss Timing – today or over the week-end? + Asia x asset
Sarkozy/Merkel came up with little new. SNB could disappoint today but not this week end. The move by the biggest Swiss retailer to force a pass-through of the high CHF seals its fate + Cross Asset piece on Asia. We have all known for a long time that it is very hard to teach an […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: GBP/USD: Market reaches range highs as expected, we now look for an upside break through here to the 1.6541/49 resistance zone, after some brief consolidation USD/CHF: Threatening minimal resistance from Monday’s peak of .8000 once again. We see risk through here to .8160 USD/CAD: Gradual grind lower persists, as the market continues to […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Upbeat sentiment dissipated: The Sarkozy-Merkel meeting generally fell short of market expectations. 2. Eurozone July HICP inflation to be confirmed at 2.5% YoY on lower core inflation. 3. BoE minutes under scrutiny following the uptick in July CPI inflation. We expect unanimity votes in favour of the rates status quo. 4. US […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy – USD weakness, part of the risk on theme
Equity markets are maintaining a bullish path on the back of last week’s reversal candles and USD weakness is becoming part of the current risk-on theme. The USD index looks set to test the July base near 73.40 and we are seeing the USD lose ground against several currencies.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Upside direction range breakout brings directional clarity back to the market. Risk now through 1.4537/79 to 1.4698/1.4707 resistance zone GBP/USD: Break above 1.6338 pivot exposes the 1.6477/80 range highs. We see risk through here to 1.6541/49 resistance zone whilst above 1.6256 support AUD/USD: Pausing at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0505, […]
JPY: Mr. and Mrs. Watanabe likely to come back into contrarian play once the risk sentiment improves
The latest positioning data published last Friday confirm that Japanese investors sold JPY into strength, especially against USD and EUR, in July (Figure 1). In particular, they accumulated net long USD/JPY position of JPY 1.6trn as of the end of July, which is the largest since November 2008 – the beginning of database (Figure 2).