Monthly Archives: August 2011
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (Aug 19)
The S&P 500’s percentage gains/losses from late 2002 to 2008 are strikingly similar to the magnitudes traced since the index’s 2009 low. As such, we are closely monitoring the lows of last week near 1100, which also coincide with retracement support; a break below this level would suggest that another wave of risk reduction is […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Mr. Soldoff was here – Mr. Riskoff is still around
Risk sentiment is still sour to say the least… In this environment the euro is hurt (against JPY, GBP & CHF) and in a stalemate tug-of-war against the dollar… Though scandies and EMs underperform in the “flight back home with what you got abroad”… Bonds keep scoring and stocks look ugly… OMX likely moving into […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Selective risk appetite
While many markets try to stabilise, commodities are finding a small bid. Crude oil has posted higher lows consistently since basing last week and base metals are holding up, with the laggard of the complex, aluminium posting a key reversal day amid bullish momentum divergence.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: A general lack of direction
EUR/USD (1.4395) Two of the Fed’s most recent dissenters were on record explaining their actions yesterday, with Philadelphia President Charles Plosser saying that the FOMC decision was inappropriate and that its timing sent the signal that the Fed was in the business of supporting the stock market.
Looking for signs of growth
For a moment there, it looked as through all it would take for EUR/USD to break free above 1.45 was SPX to hold 1200. Just when EUR/USD was threatening to make a run for it out of its trading range, along came two stories to send it crashing back into neutrality. Firstly, the US equity […]
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Inconclusive While risk markets are treading water at or below internal 38.2 % retracement’s without providing new evidence where to head next, market participants are still scratching their heads in terms of how to evaluate the French-German summit or the SNB’s decision not to peg the CHF, but to extend their interventions […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News KZ: Positive – 2Q GDP grows 7.1% yoy (p2) PL: Mixed – July Wages come is at 5.2%, employment – at 3.3% yoy (p2)
FX Views: A world without havens and limited policy puts
We continue to expect EUR to appreciate towards 1.50 against the USD in the next 6-12 months, but refrain from recommending long euros or risk for now. Risk looks skewed to the downside near term. High uncertainty and the limited extent of policy puts make us stay close to safe haven currencies and low volatility […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Failure to sustain gains into the close suggests a correction back towards 1.4325, but while above here the bias is still to 1.4698/1.4707. USD/JPY: Downside break from triangle pattern exposes 76.31/30/25 key support, but this looks to be holding once again. Through 77.11 implies a bounce to 77.82. GBP/USD: Break above 78.6% […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: EUR/CHF upside looking tired & EUR/USD hesitation
EURCHF upside momentum seeps away… Risks testing 1.1225/1.1150/1.0985-65… EURUSD rejected swings on both sides of the opening level yesterday and ended up in no mans land again. Outside 1.4325\1.4537 needed for clues…
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Visionaries in Paris
EUR/USD (1.4405) The euro came under pressure early in the European session yesterday after Germany’s Q2 GDP data came in far worse than expected. With the country’s growth just above a standstill at 0.1 percent, Chancellor Angela Merkel mapped out a Euro Zone Economic Council with President Nicolas Sarkozy in yesterday’s two-hour meeting, with the […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Fear and uncertainty
While the markets have calmed down from last week’s volatility, the signs are that there is still an element of fear and uncertainty. Gold, the haven against risk, continues to recover off last Friday’s lows and yesterday’s inside day in the S&P highlights uncertainty with recent equity gains.