Monthly Archives: August 2011
Daily Forex Outlook: QE3 or not QE3: that is the question
EUR/USD (1.4370) James Bullard said in an interview published by Nikkei yesterday that he would support a US central bank action if the economy weakens substantially, and especially if deflation becomes a risk again.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 23 August 2011
EURUSD holds well given decent Eurozone Services PMI Risk on rally likely today though financials/housing could be an obstacle Positioning complicates JPY intervention prospects
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 23 August 2011
Better than expected China PMI boosts sentiment, but against a backdrop of weaker financials Weaker Eurozone PMIs to push EURUSD to lower end of the 1.41-1.45 range JPY and CHF to find support on increased risk aversion
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Yesterday’s failure ahead of the 1.4453 resistance hurdle keeps the short-term bias lower to 1.4259/32 chart/38.2% Fibonacci retracement support zone GBP/USD: Decline continues after reversal from 1.6619 resistance. Risk today is for a break through 1.6422 trend support, which would in turn complete a top and expose 1.6300
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 23 Aug 2011
A weak China PMI to leave commodity currencies vulnerable to further downside Eurozone PMIs to push EURUSD to lower end of the 1.41-1.45 range JPY and CHF to find support on increased risk aversion
G10 Spot Trading Commentary
EURUSD: Support 1.4345 1.4260 1.4150 1.4100 1.4055/20 EURUSD: Resistance 1.4450 1.4480 1.4540 1.4586 1.4700 We continue to see accounts getting chopped up in EURUSD as we range ahead of Jackson Hole on Friday.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: USD/JPY: Friday’s prod below the key prior support zone at 76.31/30/25 hints at extended losses towards next support at 74.80. GBP/USD: Bearish reversal from 1.6619 resistance on Friday hints at a top. Through 1.6422 completes, and implies a correction back to 1.6300 channel support.
Americas FX Daily – FX weathers risk off trade in orderly fashion
What happened overnight – Surprisingly calm risk-off trading with modest FX price action FX markets traded in a surprisingly orderly fashion overnight, somewhat insulated from the extended plunge in equity prices. European stock markets are trading 1.9-4.0% weaker, following the 1.3-6.2% losses reported by Asian equity markets.
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Smile because it could be worse… Market participants were wondering yesterday, why risk markets are selling off that hard as there was no obvious reason to argue for such a massive sell-off. This argument is obviously strictly following the idea that markets have to be reasonable at all times and neglects the […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 19 August 2011
Philly Fed plunge brings double-dip fears to the fore, raising the stakes for next week’s Jackson Hole meet. Anxious wait now for Eurozone PMI/ZEW data next week. Another Lazarus-like revival in risk appetite looks unlikely into the weekend; USD, CHF and JPY to stay bid.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News KZ: Neutral – MinFin sells KZT 11.5bn (EUR 54.5mn) in 15Y GB, yield at 5.5% (p2) PL: Negative – July industrial production falls by 6.0% mom / Neutral – July PPI accelerates to 5.9% yoy (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin sells RON 400mn in 3Y ROMGB, yield at 7.34% (p2)
Australia and New Zealand Weekly: Keep your eyes on the PMIs
Central bank watch: Don’t be soured by sentiment. The RBA won’t be. Consensus appears to have shifted towards the idea that weakness in consumer and business confidence provides justification for RBA easing. We have reservations being “roped into the herd” on the grounds that: the “two-speed” economy is, in large part, by design; and “causality” […]