Monthly Archives: August 2011
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: What’s new in Lindau?
EUR/USD (1.4405) The US durable goods data yesterday surprised the markets by coming in at 4 percent, twice as high as analysts had expected. However the good news was lodged mainly in the nondefence aircraft orders; without that component the core non-defence capital goods fell by 1.5 percent.
Trade Idea: Sell EURUSD pre Jackson Hole for 1.4000
Continued failure at the 1.4518/00 resistance zone keeps the bias lower, through 1.4355 and 1.4259 initial support levels to the 1.4055 range low and then the 200-day moving average, currently placed at 1.3978. EUR/USD has failed once again ahead of the critical 1.4518/37/79 resistance cluster as the market holds below Tuesday’s peak at 1.4500.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Positive – S&P upgrades Czech LT foreign sovereign debt by two notches to AA- HU: Negative – June retail sales came in well below market cons at negative 0.5%yoy, in theory would support rate cuts but NBH stays on hold SK: Positive – S&P changes outlook to positive from stable and affirms A+ […]
O/n Wrap, OB & Flow, $Asia and Open Levels
1) Overnight Asia Wrap The main forex pairs were largely tied to fairly muted ranges in Asian trading, with little to break from the recent ranges, as traders await the speech from Bernanke on Friday. USDJPY was tied to a narrow 76.85 to 77.15 range as apparent offers from exporters around the 77.25/30 handle was […]
HSBC – Jackson Hole Preview
Please find below our Jackson hole preview and how the market reacted last year. US: Jackson Hole Preview {http://bit.ly/oFdVYw} The FOMC took a significant policy step at its last meeting (holding fed funds rate at exceptionally low levels through at least mid-2013) with Bernanke unlikely to push for immediate further policy easing at the Jackson […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Main event seems to be weaker commodities with precious metals continuing taking a hit after the key day reversals Tuesday (CAD looks especially vulnerable, see triangle in yday TA), Dollar steady, Euro steady unless EURGBP which has a case for a continued surge,
Daily Forex Outlook: Fundamental data could have been worse
EUR/USD (1.4415) Alan Greenspan gave the EUR/USD market a mild shock yesterday when he announced that ‘the euro is breaking down’. The former Fed chairman suggested that the cultural and economic divide between northern and southern Europe is simply too great, and that the reason the US economy is so sluggish is because of this […]
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Faint hope rising The fact that the leading German equity index (DAX) couldn’t be impressed by another very bad ZEW number yesterday shows an increasing resilience and highlights the oversold market conditions for risk on a bigger scale. Given that the S&P 500 additionally managed to close above an internal 38.2 % […]
Preparing for another push in the Yen?
The list of people who think the euro will survive is growing. It isn’t clear whether Alan Greenspan is actually one of them, of course, but his comments about the euro ‘breaking down’ made grizzly headlines yesterday afternoon and overnight.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Rebound results in a break above 1.4453; however, medium-term trading range still remains intact, and while below 1.4518/37/79 resistance risk is to 1.4150 GBP/USD: Topping structure continues to unfold after the market failed at 1.6573, below the 1.6619 high. We still look for a breakdown through 1.6422 support for 1.6300
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Equity markets appear to have found some strength in the hope that Fed Chairman Bernanke will offer some fresh stimulus. 2. Expect a clear moderation in the German IFO, but no collapse. 3. The French government is expected to announce fresh fiscal consolidation measures today. 4. US July Durable goods orders are […]
JPM FX Techs: Sydney/Asia Open
At a glance: With equity markets pushing higher, high beta currencies outperformed yesterday but still within the confines of the recent ranges. Again, with the two-sided action and current themes still intact, additional range action seems likely to persist seemingly into Friday’s event risk.