Monthly Archives: August 2011
European FX Daily – Focus on services PMIs and ADP
– Asian equities down 1-2% weakening Asian FX, but G10 less so – China’s July services PMI rose in line with its seasonal factor – UK, Europe and US services PMIs expected to be weak – ADP expected at 100k
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Dark clouds gather
Falling equity markets in the Eurozone (the Italian market posted a two-year low yesterday), combined with widening yield spreads and rising CDS prices, highlights that contagion from the peripheries is intensifying and even the likes of the Dax are starting to falter.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 03 Aug 2011
US ends budget stalemate but little euphoria results as concerns remain fixed on global growth EUR likely to remain under pressure if GIIPS spreads fail to re-compress US and UK services PMI important for first signs of Q3 performance
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: CHF & NOK gains on poor data
Next set of data rules it seems… Today the calendar is barren from key stuff, so perhaps room for a breather in which EURCHF & USDJPY may bounce some (but longs in those are only for those thinking catching falling knives are fun)… EURCHF could re-test the mid-1.13s before down, while USDJPY 78.05 must be […]
Tuesday: Overnight Wrap, Jpn comments, Orderbook & USD/Asia
1) Overnight Wrap A generally quiet Asian session despite a nervous and twitchy market following the comments out of Japan overnight that bring intervention risks closer. Early in our session the US debt limit bill was passed comfortably by the House of Representatives with 269 v 161 votes, and will now go on to the […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The US House of Representatives passes the debt ceiling increasing plan and more attention will revert to the rate decision and data front. 2. US June Income and Outlays to show small gains. 3. US Vehicle sales expected to increase in July.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors – August 1
Today’s highlights: USD/JPY: Again quickly below and back above key wedge support from 2008 hints at a bottom ahead of the 76.25 all time low. Only though 78.55/75 signals a better basing USD/CHF: Cautious bounce after aggressive extension to our Fibonacci objective at .7845. A move back above .8048 minimally required to even hint at […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Obama reaches a close budget compromise
EUR/USD (1.4390) The dollar rallied briefly when the US President announced that an agreement had been reached on a provisional budget deal. Democrats got the debt ceiling raised by $2,400bn in exchange for $2,800bn in spending cuts, $1,000bn of which would be immediate.
Overnight Wrap, Flow & USD/Asia Run
All about the US and the deal that has apparently been reached. USDJPY opened higher and jumped from 77.00 to 77.65 in very early trading. We slipped back to 77.30 before it was announced that Obama was having a press release.
KRW, SEK, NOK are the ‘winners’ from the US debt deal
The ability of the current batch of leaders in the US and Europe to wait until the last minute before delivering crisis-averting policies is amazing. The European experience is that this trait results in increased market skepticism but on the face of it, the US debt deal isn’t bad.
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (Aug 1)
Around the much anticipated headlines streaming from the US, the backdrop for the US dollar remains largely weak particularly against Asian and commodity currencies. US 2y yields are dipping towards all time lows at 31bp and although both 2s and the S&P 500 are holding within range, we highlight the levels to overcome to suggest […]
Update on US Debt Ceiling Discussions
Democrats, Republicans and the White House seem to have made progress, which should ease concerns about default and raise the long term value of the USD. The (yet not fully specified) agreement seems to have the following features: 1) The debt ceiling will be extended by USD2.4/2.5trn, in 2 installments. Now, it will be extended […]