Monthly Archives: August 2011
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Panic rout out of “riskier” assets
Stocks in a complete surrender with “riskier” FXers such as SEK, NOK, AUD, NZD and EMs all in a tailspin… CHF still strong and USD also benefits on this and at large also JPY… Bonds soar…
TURKEY WATCHERS. Interim MPC: Shifting priority
CBRT did not surprise in surprising markets with sweeping changes to monetary and FX policies in today’s interim meeting. The policy priority shifts to supporting domestic growth in light of deteriorating global environment.
ECB – bond buying, money market liquidity
ECB – Hint at bond buying and announcement of more money market liquidity (Astrid Schilo, Senior European Economist) – Bond buying programme is ongoing – Increased money market liquidity via new 6 mth tender, roll-over of 3 mth full allotment – ECB rates on hold at 1.5%, unchanged key expressions, more emphasis on growth uncertainty
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 04 August 2011
• Key for EUR will be whether the ECB considers restarting SMP • Japan intervenes to weaken JPY, BOJ eases policy • A sustained USDJPY rally is unlikely given current market nervousness
INTERVENTION THOUGHTS – D.BLOOM + TEAM
Bloomie’s thoughts on the INTERVENTION policies we’ve seen the last few days. Concludes – Unilateral action will not alter the long term trend {http://bit.ly/pZWisX} We have just seen the SNB cut rates to zero and the Japanese authorities engage in unilateral FX intervention. These actions are aimed at halting or reversing the currency appreciation both […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Negative – Alliance of Hungarian Local Government Head announces a proposed delay of principal repayments on CHF loans issued by local governments to domestic instititions, largely banks (p2) RO: Neutral – NBR leaves policy rate unchanged at 6.25% / Negative – June retail sales drop 1.2% mom (p2) TK: Mixed – July CPI […]
Repeated action will be needed
The MoF surprised the market by stepping in to sell JPY in the Tokyo morning session today, pushing up USD/JPY from around 77.30 to 79 yen so far. Finance Minister Noda confirmed the government’s action.
HUF WATCHERS
Hungary: Local governments seek extension on principal repayment of CHF debt Hungarian local authorities asked the Prime Minister to intermediate a deal with the banks for a one-year delay in principal repayments of Swiss Franc debt worth HUF600bn (cUSD3.2bn).
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Interventions stems CHF & JPY strength
SNB & BOJ interventions are on the fore (while ongoing, really not the best environment for techs)… USDJPY over 78.05 (now support) should lead to further gains, but the 55day EMA band, starting at 79.30, provides resistance… EURCHF over 1.1205 would target 1.1365\1.1495. Below 1.0896 would confuse…
Global Macro Daily (London Open) – 04 August 2011
– The ECB is meeting on Thursday, one month after having raised the refi rate by 25bp (to 1.50%). We do not expect much to come out of the press conference, and neither does the market. We look at the options the ECB has in terms of bond buying (see Focus on next page).
Daily Forex Outlook: Why isn’t the euro already beneath $1.40?
EUR/USD (1.4205) US private spending went unexpectedly negative in June, suggesting that consumers are already bolstering themselves against the effects of a slowing economy. Although many stock market participants had been expecting a relief rally shortly after the US debt-ceiling resolution, they instead got a mighty sell-off.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 03 August 2011
Price action characterised by traditional risk-off on global growth fears. Top Japanese officials meet but rhetoric does not signal any urgency for JPY intervention. US and UK services PMI important for first signs of Q3 performance.