Monthly Archives: August 2011
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Secret expectations
EUR/USD (1.4410) The German stock market plunged yesterday, seemingly out of nowhere, and the reason for the selloff is still unclear. Some reports say that there was talk in the market of an impending credit downgrade for Germany, but that was quickly denied by all three rating agencies.
European FX Daily – Bernanke unlikely to rescue markets
– The antipodeans led modest rally vs USD, Asian equities down 0.2-0.8%. – Bernanke at Jackson Hole today at 15:00 GMT – A weak Swiss KoF is likely to have limited impact on the CHF – Bank of Mexico likely to keep the policy rate at 4.5% with a shift to a neutral bias
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Continued failure at the 1.4518/00 resistance zone keeps the bias lower through 1.4328 trend support to 1.4259 and then 1.4150 GBP/USD: Market reverts back to intermediate-term trendline support placed at 1.6260. A break through here signals downside continuation to 1.6110/01
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Waiting for the break
Ahead of the event risk later today, recent ranging conditions are expected to persist. Beyond that we will be monitoring important range extremes for the next directional move. A break over 1208 in S&P would indicate an optimistic outcome, as would a break below the important range lows at 73.42 in the USD index.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Mixed – AKK sells HUF52.5bn HGB, demand for shorter paper strong, weaker for the long end RO: Mixed – RON226mn 10y ROMGB sold at 7.59%, TK: Mixed – Aug industrial confidence drops sharply, CU held up well
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Main event seems to be equities taking a turn for the worse (pause or turn?). USDCAD’s triangle now completed and a break higher should be imminent, EURUSD continues its buy in the morning sell in the afternoon pattern (but still within the same old range), EURJPY is now close to what we believe will be […]
FX Daily Strategist Europe – 26 August 2011
Has St. Louis Fed´s Bullard let the Bernanke cat out of the bag? Our guess is risk sentiment may not come to too much harm Friday, in which case USD may be back on sale, AUD to outperform KOF a key release that may harden Swiss resolve to prevent CHF re-appreciating
O/n Wrap, OB & Flow, $Asia, Open lvls and Data recap
1) Overnight Wrap Another quiet session here in Asia ahead of Bernanke’s speech at 1400 GMT. Players remains sidelined with position adjustment to continue. Short squeeze in risk pairs, AUD and Euro in particular, were seen early in the morning . Real money reported buying Audusd before market open below 1.0450.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 26 Aug 2011
Has St .Louis Fed’s Bullard let the Bernanke cat out of the bag? We think he may have. Our guess is risk sentiment may not come to too much harm Friday, in which case USD may be back on sale KOF a key release that may harden Swiss resolve to prevent CHF re-appreciating.
JPM FX Techs: Sydney/Asia Open
At a glance: As the big event is nearly upon us, the price action stays decidedly range-bound. Still, yesterday’s price action was significant given the downturn in equities following a failure below key resistance levels particularly for the S&P near 1200. While the action is still quite range-bound as well, yesterday’s bearish reversal is a […]
US: Initial Jobless Claims – Pushing Higher
Initial jobless claims were higher than expected with 417k claims for the week ending 20 August. The previous week’s number was revised up a touch to 412k from 408k. Initial claims have been reported at or above 399k for 20 straight weeks now.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 25 August 2011
Risk positive Wednesday despite more poor EZ data, but USD does better on position adjustments Not much to look forward to pre-Friday; German consumer confidence, initial claims of some interest. A mildly positive for risk Wednesday, but which (unusually) saw the dollar firmer on the session. With the key Eurozone data now behind us, the […]