Monthly Archives: July 2011

BG: Neutral – 1Q GDP grows 3.4% yoy (p2) CZ: Neutral – Wages expand 2.1% yoy in 1Q; Govt auctions CZGB 2014 CZK5.7bn: bid/cover ratio – 2.21, yield – 3.848% (p2) RO: Positive – 1Q GDP grows 1.7% yoy / Negative – April IndOut falls 0.2% SA mom (p2) SK: Positive – 1Q GDP grows […]

TOP: Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s debt rating to junk status yesterday, ratcheting up the pressure on euro zone governments to work out a lasting solution to their financial woes.

The consensus is for 70k — the central tendency of the distribution is 40k-110k with the fatter tails to the upside. The 70k is the lowest consensus expectation since October of last year. Citi does not have an official forecast but our economists’  100k NFP forecast is very close to the consensus view.

MoF’s portfolio flow data show that China bought roughly JPY 1.3 trn worth of Japanese bonds and notes this April (See Figure 1). China’s bond investment had previously surpassed JPY 100bn per month, but it appears to have accelerated recently, touching 200bn in March before hitting a historic high in April.

Page 1 of 2: Global data summary Available June service-sector PMIs were mixed, with a 2.3-point drop in the Euro area index of business activity (the headline index) approximately offset by a gain in Japan. 

Retail sales fell 0.6% in May after a surprisingly strong 1.2% rise in April. That follows similar volatility in March (–0.4%mth) and Feb (+1%) 

The relief bounce continued also Friday but the signs of running out of steam remains. EURUSD appears responding to the 1.4565 Fibo, EURCHF should be capped by 1.2400, the former floor, EURGBP huffing and puffing but seems unable to get a foothold above 0.9043 

The June ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.3 (consensus 52.0) from 53.5 in May. The components of the survey are still not as strong as they were earlier in the year. However, this release indicates some rebound in manufacturing activity and helps allay concerns that the recent slowdown in economic activity will be more long-lived.

Chicago PMI reduces downside ISM risk; other PMIs not so bullish but risk remains supported. CHF safe haven unwinds proceeds apace – more to come. Central banks may not be buying euros but real money now is and leveraged accounts may soon have to.

Unsurprisingly, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left all its policy rates and reserve requirements on hold at its rate setting meeting on 30 June. The accompanying policy statement signals a further shift towards a dovish stance, supporting our view that the CBR is done with rate hikes in this cycle (except possibly for deposit […]

Risk recovery weathers a weak run of PMIs What happened overnight – China manufacturing PMI falls to 50.9, weaker than consensus – Euro area manufacturing PMI unrevised from preliminary – Swiss, UK PMIs weaker than expected – Italian, Spanish PMIs fall below 50 – Hungary and Greek PMIs bounce