Monthly Archives: July 2011

EUR USD (1.4350) Jean-Claude Trichet added his weight to the recent EU criticism of the major rating agencies. He also made another step towards making them redundant – at least as far as the EU sovereign debt crisis is concerned – by scrapping the minimum credit rating requirement for Portuguese government bonds. 

CZ: Neutral – May foreign trade surplus rises to CZK 14.4bn (p2) RO: Neutral – Govt sells RON0.7bn 3Y ROMGB: yield – 7.09%, bid-to-cover –  2.6 (p2) SRB: Neutral – MPC cuts interest rates 25bp to 11.75% (p2)

Central Bank Watch: RBA takes a step to the dovish side The RBA’s July meeting statement offered very little new information. That said, the new information provided all seemed to be on the dovish side.

The ECB raised the refi rate by 25 bps to 1.5% as expected and kept the emergency rate corridor around the refi rate at +/- 75pts. Rates are still viewed as accommodative and inflation risks are still to the upside. Hence we maintain our view that the ECB will continue to normalise interest rates at […]

TRIN (Traders Index) in the US stock market shows that volume is still heavily skewed towards down stocks despite the rally in the index. The last time it was this extreme was at the kick off to the bear market of 2000-2003. EUR-USD retains a very bearish wave structure but only so long as 1.4578 […]

EUR USD (1.4310) The Moody’s downgrade of Portuguese sovereign caused investors to push up bond yields in Portugal and right across the eurozone periphery. The euro was set back too. 

KZ: Neutral – Net international reserves of the central bank decreased by USD 1.4bn to USD 34.6bn in June (p2) RO: Positive – May industrial new orders added 3%mom (p2)

ASTRID SCHILO (EUROPEAN ECON): We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 25bps to 1.5%. This has been pre-announced in the June press conference