Monthly Archives: July 2011
It is about positioning in EEMEA FX so far
Our chart shows FX performance between January and June 2011 versus FX performance in the July 2011 sell-off period. The performance of all currencies is shown versus a 50/50 EUR/USD basket in order to make EUR referenced and USD or basket referenced currencies comparable and to filter out the impact of the EUR/USD impact. The […]
Daily Forex Outlook: Market pricing goes well beyond Greece
EUR USD (1.3990) The intense pressure on EU peripheral sovereign debt and on the euro continued yesterday. Investors seemed resigned to the idea that credit rating agencies would label any solution for the Greek crisis that emerged from the EU finance ministers a default.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – July 13
News BG: Neutral – June CPI comes in at -0.9% mom (p2) CZ: Positive – June CPI drops to 1.8% yoy vs 2.1% yoy market cons HU: Positive – June CPI drops to 3.5% yoy form 3.9% yoy
AUD Consumer Sentiment down sharply
*WESTPAC SEES NO CHANGE IN RBA RATES FOR REST OF THIS YEAR WESTPAC SAYS `EASING BIAS’ IS RBA’S MOST APPROPRIATE POLICY
Macrobullets – Wednesday July 13
TOP Moody’s cut Ireland’s credit rating to junk, warning that the debt-laden country would likely need a second bailout {http://reut.rs/pNMabr} Greece may buy back debt at an average price of about 50 percent of bonds’ nominal value, Financial Times Deutschland reported, citing a concept discussedby euro-zone governments.
Australia: Population unlocks house prices
Based on population dynamics, the risk of an imminent day of reckoning for Australian house prices appears low in our opinion. Indeed, based on population projections and real GDP growth forecasts, Australian house prices are likely to deliver a moderate rate of appreciation once the current modest overvaluation has been worked through. Supporting this thesis, […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – July 13
Today likely to be a day of congestion/consolidation. EZ worries also taking a toll on the core with France/Germany spread at its widest since 1995, yesterday passing the post Lehman peak. EURUSD did complete a minor wave pattern from 1.44, a small congestion and then 1.37.
HSBC FX Strategy and Economics Comments on China data
BOTTOM LINE: EXPECT TWO MORE RRR HIKES BY END Q3 AND STAY SHORT USDCNH. DONNA KWOK : China’s GDP was a touch higher than what markets expected at 9.6%yoy, but it decelerated nonetheless versus 1Q’s 9.7%yoy. The fact that sequential growth momentum held steady (GDP rose 2.2% on the quarter, seasonally adjusted) means that China […]
OVN FX Wrap
Lots of bits and pieces to digest, but unsurprisingly a quieter session than the start of the week with an underlying positive sentiment led by the recovery in stocks and higher Chinese GDP data.
Technical Analysis: EUR-USD bullish potential eliminated
The move below 1.4074 eliminates the main alternative bullish triangle wave count in EUR/USD. Probabilities are now very high that the market will fall towards 1.30 on a multi week / month timeframe. US stocks have yet to eliminate their bullish potential but bonds are testing and breaking significant resistance levels.
Daily Forex Outlook: Swift response to renewed EU debt woes
EURUSD (1.3955) Investor concerns about peripheral EU debt took a sharp turn for the worse yesterday. Since the weekend, Italy has leapfrogged Greece, Spain and the others to occupy the centre stage.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – July 12
News ES: Positive -International trade posts strong growth in May (p2) KZ: Positive – According to PM K. Masimov, Kazakhstan’s economy grew 7.1% yoy in 1H11 (p2) RO: Positive – May external trade data show both exports and imports accelerating to 32% YTD and 23.2% YTD respectively (p2)