Monthly Archives: July 2011
Asian CB FX Policy
The latest data show a reduction in FX reserves across much of the region, as central banks likely sold dollars amid risk aversion and currency intervention The preference appears to be stability when global conditions are uncertain and volatile Still, we notice an ongoing gradual shift towards more permissiveness of currency strength
S&P move on the US…
EUR spikes from 1.4160 to highs of 1.41995 and USDJPY fall from 79.15 to 78.89 lows. Note this actually passing Moody’s since S&P have “Creditwatch Negative” is more imminent i.e. in the next month or two VS Outlook Negative from Moody’s which could be a downgrade in the next 18 months
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – July 15
The consolidation phase slowly ending, risk aversion should be on the rise. EUR should, after yesterday’s topside rejection, continue its slide against $/£/JPY/CHF etc. NZD/USD spike should worry longs (and they are very long indeed – a crowded trade), AUD equities on the verge of a major break lower….worth keeping an eye on.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 14 July 2011
Bernanke, Moody’s batter USD; but debt negotiations may provide some hope Italian debt auctions, will-they-or-won’t-they emergency summit are the focus for Europe US, EU woes to further encourage safe-haven flows into CHF, JPY, Gold
Daily Forex Outlook: Moody’s shifts market attention to the US
EUR/USD (1.4205) The decision by Moody’s to put US on negative watch came at one of the most illiquid times of the currency trading day yesterday and so had striking effect. The dollar declined as the credit rating agency highlighted the risks that would emerge from a failure of US lawmakers to reach a decision […]
EUR/USD support ahead of auction today?
This message from Bloomie/Mackel ahead of the Italian auctions at 10am today? So we have had a warning about the US debt situation, suspected BoJ intervention and this is all before the main event this morning. All eyes will be on the Italian bond auction at 10am BST. We will be looking at the bid […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – July 14
News KZ: Neutral – Minfin sells KZT11bn (EUR 53.5mn) 5y bonds (p2) PL: Positive – June CPI decelerates to 4.2% yoy (p2) RU: Neutral – Finance Ministry sells the lowest amount of OFZ at yesterday auction since Jan 2010 (p2)
Italy auction / KRW / Bernanke
Italian auction today – “In our view a number of factors point towards a decent outcome” – Relatively low issuance volume and favourable market positioning – Market environment has improved – Net issuance and cash-flow outlook are supportive
Macrobullets – Thursday – July 14
TOP Moodys places US AAA Govt bond rating and related ratings on review for possible downgrade citing “rising possibility debt limit will not be raised on a timely basis”. Says probability of a US default on interest payments to be “low but no longer minimis” {http://bit.ly/nprjhf} President Barack Obama abruptly walking out of a key […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – July 14
The consolidation phase seen yesterday is expected to be running late and expected to end now. EURUSD passed its primary reaction target, 1.4073, but resistance now firmer in the 55d ma band, EURJPY having met its correction target makes it vulnerable to renewed downside pressure,
OVN FX Wrap
Asia walked in to find the dollar already weaker across the board following a seemingly dovish Bernanke and Moody’s announcement to place the US on negative watch. EURUSD had already pushed up to 1.42 with AUDUSD having popped above 1.08 to trigger stops in light liquidity.
USDJPY spikes from 78.60 to 79.60…
JPY: JAPAN MOF OFFICIAL: WILL NOT COMMENT ON WHETHER JAPAN INTERVENED IN FX MKT