Monthly Archives: July 2011
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News PL: Mixed – June wage growth accelerates to 5.8% yoy from 4.1% yoy in May (p2) KZ: Positive – The state budget deficit narrows to 0.9% of GDP in 1H2011 from 1.6% of GDP the year before (p2)
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (July 19)
With the banking sector strongly underperforming the broader stock market in both Europe and the US, funding issues are escalating. The spreads between banks and government funding are rising to multi-year highs in Europe and undermining sentiment.
What matters today (Asia edition) – July 19
Developed macro 1. Risk firmly off as eurozone debt crisis escalates and failure to raise US debt ceiling. 2. The ECB did not settle any bond purchases last week. 3. The German ZEW could fall sharply on sovereign woes.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – July 19
EUR/USD having a hard time closing below 1.4100 (basically three times since March. Underlying euro weakness easier to spot looking at the euro index, which has broken lower. AUDJPY on the verge of a new round of weakness we think, EURSEK almost at the next target with the 9.28 print yesterday, look for bids 9.20/22 […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Erosion from 1.4295/98 resistance signals mini-top and risk lower. Through 1.4036 would open the door down to key 1.3772 support this week
Macrobullets – Monday – July 18
TOP FT: Plan D stands for Default … and the death of the euro {http://on.ft.com/rptYNq} Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has warned that she will only attend an emergency summit on the eurozone financial crisis {http://on.ft.com/rtOooC} in Brussels on Thursday if there is going to be an agreement on a new rescue plan for Greece. […]
HK FX session wrap, USD/Asia run
As FX markets opened overnight USDCHF and EURCHF dived to trigger stops to the downside in thin liquidity to 0.8034 and 1.1365 respectively before recovering into the main Asian session.
FT – ECB and Merkel clash over Greece
The head of the European Central Bank placed a major obstacle on the path to a new agreement on a Greek financial bail-out, saying the bank could not accept defaulted bonds as collateral, potentially cutting off fundng from the Greek banking system.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – July 18
No really strong signs this morning, looks to us like a waiting game… EURUSD rejection from above 1.4200 still lacks a downside acceleration, EURJPY looks more promising but still faces firm support in the 109/111-area, EURGBP to test its key support, 0.8721, this morning,
HSBC Macrobullets – Friday – July 15
TOP: The results of the stress tests – due at 5pm UK time – are expected to see about 10 of the 91 banks tested fall short of having the required 5 per cent core tier one capital, including a clutch of four smaller Spanish savings banks and as many as three Greek banks {http://on.ft.com/qen3hU} […]
Next rate move in Australia to be down – 100 bp’s of easing through 2012
Westpac now expect a sequence of rate cuts beginning with 25bps in December 2011 and through 2012 totalling 100bps prior to a period of steady rates in 2013. While the catalyst for the first rate cut is likely to come from offshore we do not expect it to be a one off. Interest rates are […]
Global Issues: Wagging the dog: powerful swings in EM inflation spill over to DM
The next move in global inflation is down. Consumer price inflation surged to 3.7%oya in May, a rate last seen in late 2008. Much of this rise reflects rising commodity prices which have now stabilized. By early next year we anticipate global inflation to fall below 3%.