Monthly Archives: July 2011
Macrobullets – Thursday July 21
TOP: Merkel and French President Sarkozy agreed on a joint position for a second fiscal aid package for Greece, the German government confirmed Thursday {http://on.ft.com/nobRqf} Germany and France will propose a multi-billion euro bank levy at this morning’s summit in Brussels to guarantee private sector involvement in a second Greek rescue package, a move the […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 21 July 2011
All eyes will be fixed on the EU Summit meeting Expectations of a resolution on Greece are high, and so any disappointment will weigh on sentiment China HSBC PMI will be released this morning
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (July 21)
We recently highlighted the bullish risks in USD/SGD and NZD/USD as these Asian/commodity currency leaders continue to gain ground against the USD. Elsewhere, however, several USD pairs are at or near important support areas.
110 bn EUR deal between Merkel, Sarko and Trichet
The FT is headlining on this agreement though exact details were leaked only to AFP and are yet to hit the global press. The german and french press offers a variety of other insights. Le parisien and AFP cites french sources in confirming a deal was reached on a 110 bn EUR package. 50 bn […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: USD/CHF: Reinforcing the bullish “outside” Monday from a record low for a small base. The challenge is now to overcome .8500/27 for a sustainable bottom; we look for this area to cap NZD/USD: Surge to another new multi-decade high through 8501 and wedge top leaves August risk to our Q3 target at .9000
Macrobullets – Wednesday – July 20
TOP US: An ambitious new plan, unveiled by a group of senators known as the “Gang of Six” (3 Republican and 3 Democrat senators), offers a ray of hope in an increasingly grim standoff that has threatened the US’ top-notch credit rating. It would cut the deficit by $3.75tn over a decade. {http://bit.ly/pboITt} Moody’s has […]
Cascade effects of a US sovereign rating change
Financial markets were jolted briefly today when Moody’s Investors Service announced that it was putting the Aaa credit rating of five states on review. Though some market participants were taken off guard, Moody’s had already issued a comment back in June warning that any change to the US sovereign rating would necessarily have negative implications […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 20 July 2011
President Obama throws his support behind “Gang of Six” plan, providing comfort to the markets BoC significantly changes its tone, turning hawkish Expectations of dovish BoE minutes should pull GBP lower
BoE Minutes today: 1-6-2 still?
The BoE minutes are due out this morning see the preview from our econ group below UK BoE minutes (6-7 Jul meeting) – 09:30 BST / 04:30 EST The minutes of June’s MPC meeting showed a division of opinion emerging within the ‘no-change’ group, with some policymakers apparently leaning towards a further round of quantitative […]
CNY Much lower USDCNY fix today fix…6.4592 (92 pips lower)
CNY NDF USD/CNY fixing came out much lower than expected today to a new record low. Since overall positions are rather light, we saw leverage guys came back selling across the curve. Real money accounts were still rolling their short positions in the 3mth tenor.
European FX Daily – Asian equities rallied but FX traded sideways
– Majors in tight ranges, Asian equities up 0.4-1.4% – BoE minutes likely to be dovish and weigh on GBP What to watch for today GBP: Unchanged voting pattern but a more dovish message. We expect the minutes of the BoE’s July meeting to show an unchanged voting pattern, with Dale and Weale voting for […]
Westpac AUD/USD outlook
Summary: AUD/USD has spent very little time outside the broad 1.04-1.08 range since May, with underlying USD weakness and confidence in Asia’s resilience cushioning the pair despite a clear deterioration in Australia’s outlook.