Monthly Archives: July 2011
European FX Daily – Focus on UK GDP and Richmond Fed survey
– European currencies lead rally vs USD, Asian equities up 0.1-1.0% – Likely weak UK Q2 GDP to weigh on the GBP – Will Richmond Fed follow yesterday’s positive surprise from Dallas? – RBA Governor Stevens positive on the consumption outlook – How likely is Japanese intervention?
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 25 July 2011
Grid lock in US debt ceiling talks supports Gold and CHF. We like long EURCAD after Canada CPI surprise, and long NZD vs. USD, CAD and AUD into RBNZ. GBP at fresh risk if Q2 GDP fails to show any growth.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The relief was short-lived
EUR/USD (1.4380) The Greece bailout deal seemed to have bought some time if not exactly solvency. We were surprised to see Fitch, the ratings agency, was the first to downgrade Greek sovereign paper, calling the terms of the new agreement a ‘restricted’ default, and Moody’s followed suit with a downgrade this morning.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors – July 25
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Setback from the 2011 topping line, 1.4450 leaves risk of defensive consolidation early this week. Below 1.4324 today would aim at 1.4139; month-end risk to 1.4015 USD/JPY: Cautious probe and another defence of 78.25 retrace support. We still look for a rebound back to the range
Deadlock and disappointment (Kit mainly)
The press response to Europe’s latest Greek bailout was pretty negative, maybe in part because the euro failed to gain any traction on Friday. The upshot is that we start the week with the broad EUR/USD 1.40-1.45 range holding, the mood slightly negative and not a lot of newsflow to help us along.
Overnight FX Wrap, Orderbook & Flow, USD/Asia, Greece downgrade
1) Overnight Wrap With no new debt ceiling deal in place in the US, the markets opened weak in Asia with equity futures trading down 1%. Gold and CHF were the large gainers as investors fled for safety. Gold made new highs taking out stops and jumping to 1624.
Technical Alert: Direction for today seems mostly unclear
Direction for today seems mostly unclear and its hard to find a particular focus at the start of the week… EURUSD levels at 1.4285 & 1.4485 have to be observed and the same goes for EURJPY at 112.25 & 114.00…
TRY WATCHERS (Turkey…)
All eyes on Turkish CB with accelerated depreciation in Lira (basket all time high) after dovish MPC last week, market scepticism on unorthodox monetary policy and jittery global markets. CBRT could slash/suspend daily $30mn FX purchase auctions and/or lift ultra-low 1.50% O/N bid rate/narrow corridor.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Relief at last
EUR-USD (1.4390) The euro surged higher yesterday on the news that a new bailout deal will allow Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to borrow at rates between 3.5 and 4 percent and to extend their loan payments out to 30 years.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – Poland, Serbia, Turkey
News CZ: Positive – Finance Ministry raised its outlook for 2011 GDP growth to 2.5% (p2) PL: Positive – Govt successfully sells new 10Y benchmark POLGB (p2) TK: Dovish – CBT keeps policy, RRR unchanged, statement dovish (p2)
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Surge through 1.4283/98 barriers completes a short-term base for a better recovery tone into month-end. Prod at 1.4420, but above the topping line, 1.4460, needed for a more bullish tone into August
EU leaders delivered better then expected agreement
– Majors in tight ranges, Asia currencies up 0.4-1.7% – EU leaders delivered a better than expected agreement – A weak German Ifo may weigh on EURUSD recovery – Canadian CPI inflation to restrain BoC tightening expectations