Monthly Archives: May 2011

From the subdued price action this week it would appear that the initial wave of risk reduction, which began at the start of the month is over. Cloud support is holding (GBP/USD closed above its daily cloud yesterday despite opening below)

BOJ: The Bank of Japan voted unanimously to leave the policy rate at zero to 0.1% following a two-day policy board meeting (2): — BOJ: Japan Economy Under Strong Downward Pressure — BOJ: But Econ Expected to Return to Moderate Recovery Path — BOJ: Uncertainty About Effects of Quake High — BOJ Repeats: Must Watch […]

Overnight equity markets Nikkei          -0.01%          9’619.82 S&P500          +0.22%          1’343.60 Dow             +0.36%          12’605.32 Nasdaq          +0.30%          2’823.31

News BY: Positive – Russia agrees to lend Belarus USD 3-3.5bn (p2) KZ: Mixed – Central Bank Governor Grigory Marchenko says he opposes “short-term speculative bets” on KZT (p2) LN: Positive – IMF revises GDP growth to 6% and 4.75%, budget deficit to 5.3% and to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 and 2012 respectively (p2)

“When you’re standing at the crossroads every highway looks the same” After a “constructive” morning for our bullish EURUSD view, we saw New York hit the downside of EURUSD on their open, just as Europe had done hours earlier. What followed was a very choppy, but ultimately very profitable afternoon.

The debate about Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s successor as the head of the IMF is in full swing. Sadly all sides seem to be more interested in the origin of the candidate than his or her qualifications.

Divergent views among central banks may continue While the ECB has started to tighten monetary policy, the BoE and the Fed have remained on hold. Recent comments from different central bank officials indicate that differences in policy stance may continue.

GBP/USD has sold off towards and held above its one year uptrend at 1.6089. We would allow for a small rebound from here. However we do not believe that the market will struggle to reassert the long term bull trend.

Given the dearth of market-moving economic data, ‘headline-watching’ especially regarding official comments about Greece should dominate today’s session.

Nothing much is boiling out there at the moment… Things are simmering below the surface but the market is in a cautious on hold mood it seems… EURUSD & EURJPY charts looks just the same (=USDJPY at a standstill)…

The Treasury rally has lost momentum, with yields failing to break decisively below this year’s lows. The near-term strategy call on yields and the curve is neutral.