Monthly Archives: May 2011

Theme of the day is risk aversion pause. EURUSD continuing its slowly rising correction, look for renewed selling opportunity.

Two weeks before the decisive June ECB meeting a host of Board members will get a chance to influence market expectations about the next rate hike. Better liquidity prospects and lingering fears about Greece could add to the re-steepening in coming days, offering better entry into flatteners before the ECB pre-announces the next rate hike […]

As universally expected, CBRT kept its policy rate at 6.25% in today’s meeting. Required reserve ratios (RRR) were also left unchanged. Market expectations were mixed, with some analysts, including ourselves, expecting another small upwards adjustment.

UK Q1 GDP (2nd release) – UK consumer back in recession Market rumours prior to this mornings GDP release were for a soft number, and although the headline growth rate was unchanged at 0.5% q-o-q (1.8% y-o-y) the detail was undoubtedly weak.

TOP Japan earthquake leads it to post first trade deficit in 3 months -463bn YoY(vs EXP -703). Japanaese Exports down 12.5 pct yr/yr, roughly in line with forecasts, whiule imports were up 9%. Exports to China fall 7%, to US down 23%

the 2nd revision of Q1 UK GDP is out tomorrow AM see our econ group’s preview below UK GDP (Q1, 2nd release) – 09:30 BST The first release of Q1 GDP estimated growth over the quarter at 0.5%, despite being in line with the consensus forecast, should still be considered somewhat disappointing following the 0.5% […]

• EUR remains choppy on lack of clarity over Greece • GBP may be a safer sell than EUR, vs. NOK or AUD • Japan trade data less bad – bias remains to the downside for USDJPY.

News HR: Positive – EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting indicate EU discussions are drawing to a close (p2) HU: Negative – March Retail Sales surprise on downside (p2) SRB: Positive – Solid demand at the 18-month t-bill auction (p2) TK: Mixed – May Capacity utilization rises to 75.2% SA, Real Sector Confidence Index increases 0.4% mom […]

EUR USD (1.4045) It would seem that only the absence of bad news was respite enough for the euro yesterday, and it rose for the first time in three days. Germany’s Ifo index showed that the business sentiment in that country is better than analysts had been expecting, although it came in unchanged from the […]

Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Failure at 1.4134 sees market maintain downward trend towards 200 DMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3655 GBP/USD: Near-term downward trend continues to dictate. While below 1.6308 the bias will remain lower to the 200 DMA/chart support zone at 1.5941/37 AUD/USD: Market threatening key internal trendline and chart support zone at 1.0455/43/1.0390 […]

Risk aversion is on the fore and euro correction against its key peers seems to be a short-lived affair… EURUSD under 1.4002 would argue for fresh lows…