Monthly Archives: May 2011

TOP UK GFK NOP Consumer confidence -21 in May vs -31 in April (forecast -31). Highest reading since December. Biggest monthly rise in GFK UK confidence since May 1993 Japanese core CPI up 0.6% on year (first positive reading since 2008). April retail sales at 4.8% y/y (vs -8% previous month)

The second release of Q1 GDP was unchanged at 1.8%, weaker than the consensus expectation for an upward revision to 2.2%. The main surprise was an unexpected downward revision to Q1 consumption spending, which was lowered to 2.2% (consensus 2.8%) from 2.7%.

> NZD/USD today shot right through the .8000/.8018 resistance area and came to within ticks of its early May high at .8122. > This may well be briefly breached so that stop levels will be triggered but we expect the 2009-11 resistance line at .8161 to lead to rejection, however (see next page).

Q1 11 real GDP was unchanged in the second estimate, rising 1.8% q/q (saar), below our forecast (2.0%) and consensus (2.2%) estimates.

German comments support view that Greek package will be delivered, but agreement still premature EURCHF makes new lows; strong trade numbers could see it lower still SEK also to gain if today´s numbers are strong

GBP-USD has established a key pivot at 1.6059. Above that level a bull case remains alive whilst below it the market should accelerate lower. USD-JPY is increasingly vulnerable to a downside reversal. Leadership remains defensive in stock markets and 1346 remains the crucial crossroads in the S&P 500.

European sovereign debt contagion risk and fear of Greek default hit risk sentiment as well as the Asian emerging market currencies and the South Korean Won has been one of the worst performers over the month among the 10 most actively traded Asian currencies.

EUR USD (1.4160) Those searching for the reason for the euro’s sudden spike in overnight trading probably needn’t look any further than a headline in this morning’s Financial Times – ‘China to buy Europe bail-out bond’.

G10 Currencies EUR: This morning during Asian trading hours a press release caused EUR-USD to recover notably. Klaus Regling, CEO of the EFSF, announced that the regime in Beijing was interested in investing into the new tranche of EFSF bonds which would have to be issued in the near future to finance aid payments to […]

News CZ: Neutral – Govt auctions CZK 6.196bn VAR/16 CZGB, bid/cover ratio – 2.51 / Govt approves new pension reform legislation (p2) TK: Dovish – CBT leaves both policy Rate and RRR unchanged (p2)

USD/CHF is stalling at its downtrend, GBP/USD is bouncing from Fibo support circa 1.6054 and USD/JPY remains capped by its 55 day ma at 82.55. The dollar is drifting lower as a consequence.