Monthly Archives: May 2011

G10 Currencies EUR-USD: With a bank holiday in the US and the UK and due to a lack of news on the debt front EUR-USD traded sideways yesterday. This was however not more than a short breather.

Foreign Exchange EUR/USD – 1.4320/65 key near term, outlook neutralising. US dollar index remains negative below the 76.55 down channel GBP/USD – Outside week to the topside – unable to rule out upside probes.

EUR USD (1.4270) Commentators are abuzz over a Financial Times report this morning which says that European leaders are negotiating severe bailout terms for Greece, including international intervention in tax collection and the relinquishment of state assets in exchange for more relief money.

We recommend going short EUR-GBP at current levels and selling a 2 month 0.835/0.9 EUR-GBP strangle.

EUR USD (1.4255) Jean-Claude Juncker apparently spooked the forex market yesterday by calling  into question the next tranche of Greece’s rescue loan.

PM Papandreou will meet with opposition party leaders today in an bid to to achieve some form of consensus on the measures that need to be adopted. President Karolos Papoulias is also reported to be attending today’s meeting. According to Ekathimerini, this type of meeting, involving all the party leaders and chaired by the president, […]

News BG: Neutral – Deleveraging of the economy continues throughout March (p2) RO: Neutral – Govt auctions RON 0.5bn 2021 ROMGB: yield – 7.45%; bid/cover ratio – 2.78 (p2)

Comment: USD/CHF has eroded the .8554 recent low and is in all time lows. This targets the base of a 7 year channel at .8370.

G10 Currencies USD: The fact that the US GDP data for Q1 2011 was not revised upwards, contrary to expectations, and that the initial jobless claims are rising notably again, was not good news for the dollar.

Helped by intensifying fears that the IMF may not release the next aid tranche for Greece and disappointing US macro data, 10y Bunds have reached our envisaged near-term target at 3% in yield.

The Asian session started off with mild soft USD tone, USDJPY traded below NY low 81.15 and some stops taken out followed the better than expected release of Japan Apr CPI (positive number for first time in 2 years) and retail sales.