Monthly Archives: May 2011
Spot Desk Daily View 18th May.
EUR Wobbles but it won’t fall down…….yet Yesterday saw EURUSD come under the most intense pressure from all angles; negative official statements, stock markets and metals hit hard and the USD generally being in demand for most of the day.
UK monetary policy treads choppy water.
The minutes of the May MPC meeting revealed no new lines of discussion in the monetary policy debate amid volatile activity and inflation data.
Daily Forex Outlook – 18 may 2011.
Soft restructure doesn’t guarantee soft landing EUR USD (1.4270) Press reports circulating yesterday morning said that Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker was considering the case for a ‘soft restructuring’ of Greece’s debt load.
Daily Market Technicals – Dollar/Europe lower, USD/JPY attempting to base.
EUR/USD charted an inside day to leave our outlook unchanged. We remain unable to rule out a further small bounce, but we expect this to remain fairly tepid.
Do not be disappointed with Russia GDP growth in Q1.
Summary GDP growth of 4.1% y-o-y in Q1 came below expectations on weak performance of fixed investment, domestic demand and fast growing imports. However, upward revisions in Q1 GDP growth are likely, in our opinion, and we already observe signs of economic growth accelerating in Q2 on the back of higher oil prices.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 17 May 2011.
US government hits its debt ceiling and US Treasury deploys extraordinary measures; USTs remain bid EcoFin now looking at Greek debt reprofiling – some (modest) downside risks to EURUSD.
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Steering into calmer water?
Yesterday was somewhat inconclusive for FX markets. NZD/USD broke lower from its recent trading range but confirming signals failed to materialise in the other commodity currency markets
German ZEW index provides mixed signals.
The May release of the German ZEW index of investor confidence provided yet again mixed signals. While the current conditions balance improved to 91.5 and thus the highest level seen so far in the cycle, the expectations balance reflecting six-month forward investor sentiment declined for the third consecutive month, down by 4.5 points on the […]
New MPC member Ben Broadbent suggests no rush to hike rates.
Ben Broadbent, who is to replace Andrew Sentance on the MPC at the end of this month, today gave testimony to the Treasury Select Committee.
HSBC : Currencies : Technical Analysis : Ending diagonal in Bund.
Bonds have some marginal gains left in them with the Bund exhibiting an ending diagonal.
FX Ringside: Fatal attraction – GBP valuation.
In our most recent edition of Currency Strategy published last week our overall GBP rating was downgraded compared to the previous report due to weak fundamentals and an adverse technical outlook. Despite its inexpensive trade weighted valuation, we remain negative towards GBP.